EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 26, 2017
October 26, 2017
The EIA reported a +64 bcf injection for the week ending October 19th, in-line with our estimate and 1 bcf below the Bloomberg median. As far as the regional balances are concerned – our underestimation of injections in the South Central this week offset our overestimation in the Mountain region, causing our total estimate to match the EIA’s total reported number. Still the 2 bcf miss in the mountain region was surprising, especially based on the size of the region. Our flow model continues .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 19, 2017
October 19, 2017
The EIA reported a +51 bcf injection for the week ending October 12th, 7 bcf higher than our estimate and 2 bcf below the Bloomberg average. After Hurricane Harvey, we suggested that the impact of hurricanes on US natural gas balances had shifted dramatically since Katrina and Rita. We argued that over the past decade extreme weather events in the GOM have caused a bigger impact on demand rather than supply. Therefore, seeing offshore shut-in volumes climb higher in the days leading to and.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 12, 2017
October 12, 2017
The EIA reported a +87 bcf injection for the week ending October 5th, the number was 4 bcf higher than our estimate and 2 bcf above the Bloomberg median. The region that led to most of our error was the East where our model had forecasted a much lower injection than was reported. Our flow model suggested only a modest increase week over week from the storage pools we track in the region, highly influenced by TCO reporting its lowest injection week since April. Despite this, injections in t.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 05, 2017
October 5, 2017
The EIA reported a +42 bcf injection for the week ending September 28th, the number was -2 bcf below our estimate and -5 bcf below the Bloomberg median. The region where we saw the largest variation was the Midwest, where our flow model had predicted lower injections. A combination of record late September heat, strong power burns, and much lower week over week injections in visible storage pools all suggested that injections would have been lower than reported in the Midwest. What likely ca.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 28, 2017
September 28, 2017
The EIA reported a +58 bcf injection for the week ending September 21st, the number was -6 bcf below our estimate and -9 bcf below the Bloomberg median. The region that led to most of our flow model’s miss was the Northeast. We were taken aback Monday when both TCO and Dominion systems reported much lower system injections than we expected. While we did factor in the direct impact of these lower injections on TCO and Dominion systems, the rippling effect of the OFOs and restrictions that.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 21, 2017
September 21, 2017
The EIA reported a 97 bcf injection for the week ending September 14th, the number was 4 bcf above our estimate and 5 bcf above the Bloomberg median. While our model was spot on for the Midwest, Pacific and Mountain regions, it overestimated the injection in the East and underestimated it in the South Central. In the East, injections fell back into the five-year range after very strong builds during the prior two weeks. The South Central continued to add inventory at a rapid pace in salt cav.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 14, 2017
September 14, 2017
The EIA reported a 91 bcf injection for the week ending September 7th, the number was 2 bcf above our estimate and 6 bcf above the Bloomberg median. The two regions that varied the most from our estimates were the South Central and West: our model overestimated injections in the South Central and we were surprised by the lack of withdrawals in the West (despite strong gas demand in electric generation). What appears to be the case is that California, in lieu of using its own storage (which i.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 07, 2017
September 7, 2017
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the injection season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a 65 bcf injection for the week ending August 31st. The number was 1 bcf above our estimate and in line with the Bloomberg median. The biggest differences between our estimate and the reported EIA numbers came in the Midwest and South Central, with our model over-predicting the injection in the South Central and under-predicting the injection in the Midwest. Sinc.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 31, 2017
August 31, 2017
The EIA reported a 30 bcf injection for the week ending August 24th. The number was 1 bcf below our estimate and in line with the Bloomberg median. While our total estimate was close to the EIA reported number, there were some unexpected regional differences in the Mountain and South Central. In the South Central, we likely underestimated demand impacts ahead of the Hurricane (both in the power and RCI sectors) and overestimated supply impacts (due to shut-ins), leading our South Central.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 24, 2017
August 24, 2017
The EIA reported a 43 bcf injection for the week ending August 17th. The number was 2 bcf below our estimate and 3 bcf below the Bloomberg median. The largest regional difference this week was in the South Central again, where our prediction was 4 bcf weaker than the actual reported withdrawal. While we factored in the increase in ERCOT non-wind/non-nuclear demand, the magnitude could have been stronger than expected leading to the stronger withdrawal. On the other hand, our model’s consis.....