EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| May 11, 2017
May 11, 2017
The EIA reported a +45 bcf injection for the week ending May 4, -7 bcf below what our flow model had anticipated on Tuesday and -10 bcf below the Bloomberg median. The largest difference was in the Midwest which was -9 Bcf below our model’s estimate. The large miss in both our model and market expectations for the Midwest was most likely due to a combination of Vector pipeline outages and higher than expected gas burns. The Vector pipeline outage beginning on May 1st and extending to May 8th.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| May 04, 2017
May 4, 2017
The EIA reported a +67 bcf injection for the week ending April 27, +1 bcf above what our flow model had anticipated on Tuesday and +5 bcf above the Bloomberg median. On a whole our flow model was fairly accurate this week, however inter-regionally there was an overestimation in the Midwest which was offset by an underestimation in the South Central region. A sudden unexpected end of the week decline in deliveries from the South Central into the Midwest caused our regional balances to be off......
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 27, 2017
April 27, 2017
The EIA reported a +74 bcf injection for the week ending April 20, -3 bcf below what our flow model had anticipated on Tuesday and +1 bcf above the Bloomberg median. The most significant deviation in our flow model, once again, proved to be Midwest where our estimate was 5 bcf higher than the reported injection. As mentioned in last week’s report, the deviation between our data source, which reports injections/withdrawals and the EIA who reports inventory levels, caused complications in es.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 20, 2017
April 20, 2017
The EIA reported a +54 bcf injection for the week ending April 13, -6 bcf below what our flow model had anticipated on Tuesday and +4 bcf above the Bloomberg median. The largest variance came in the Midwest, which was in part anticipated and explained on our Wednesday note: we traced our higher than consensus estimate for the Midwest to the data source used in our flow model. In some pipeline systems, storage inventory changes are reported in two separate ways, as the sum of nominated inject.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 13, 2017
April 13, 2017
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the injection season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a +10 bcf injection for the week ending April 6, slightly below the +13 bcf that our flow model had anticipated on Tuesday and exactly in line with the Bloomberg median. Our regional flow model performed well in most regions save for the Midwest where it predicted a small injection as opposed to the observed withdrawal. With this week being the Yankees home open.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 06, 2017
April 6, 2017
The EIA reported a +2 bcf injection for the week ending March 30, exactly in line with what our flow model had anticipated on Tuesday and 6 bcf below the Bloomberg median of 8. Our regional models also performed well, with the largest difference being only 2 bcf. Regionally the largest difference was between the East and South Central regions, which can be partially explained through increases in flows through Florida Gas Transmission despite only modest GWCDDs, suggesting slightly stronger .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 30, 2017
March 30, 2017
The EIA reported a -43 bcf withdrawal for the week ending March 23, a slightly larger draw than the -42 bcf our flow model had anticipated and exactly in line with the Bloomberg median of -43 bcf. As for our regional breakdown, the largest difference from the EIA came in our balance between the South Central and Midwest, where we assumed a net injection in the South Central and stronger withdrawals in the Midwest. The perfect balance between these two regions tends to be elusive, while som.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 23, 2017
March 23, 2017
The EIA reported a -150 bcf withdrawal for the week ending March 16, a larger draw than the -143 bcf our flow model had anticipated and a smaller pull than the Bloomberg median of -153 bcf. As for our regional breakdown, the largest miss came in South Central where we assumed more modest withdrawals from non-salt caverns while the EIA reported a strong 16 bcf pull. As noted in last week’s summary, our preliminary S/D balances suggested a draw of -150 bcf for the reference week. Yet, on Tue.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 16, 2017
March 16, 2017
The EIA reported a -53 bcf withdrawal for the week ending March 9, a smaller draw than the -59 bcf our model had anticipated and also below the Bloomberg median of -57 bcf. As for a regional breakdown, the largest miss came in South Central where we had flat inventory, while the EIA reported a +5 bcf injection. The reference week was special for Texas – and not just because the Houston Rodeo began on March 7. At 11.8 aGW, ERCOT recorded its highest ever weekly wind generation, breaking t.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 09, 2017
March 9, 2017
The EIA reported a -68 bcf withdrawal for the week ending March 2, a larger draw than the amount our model anticipated and also well above the Bloomberg median of -62 bcf. To be fair, our flow model performed quite well this week: the implied flow by the EIA was indeed -64 bcf, and a 4 bcf reclassification from working gas to base gas in salt domes raised that number to -68 bcf. The salt reclassification was somewhat surprising as salt domes have much tighter margin of errors in their invent.....