EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 17, 2017
August 17, 2017
The EIA reported a +53 bcf injection for the week ending August 10th. The number was 5 bcf below both our estimate and the Bloomberg median. This week had a downward revision to working gas storage in South Central salt caverns between the periods June 29th to August 3rd, 2017. The majority of the revision was to June 29th inventories, which were revised down -10 bcf (closer to what our model had forecast for that week). In terms of actual inventory levels this puts us at 3,082 bcf, suggesting.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 10, 2017
August 10, 2017
The EIA reported a +28 bcf injection for the week ending August 3rd. The number was -8 below our estimate and -9 bcf below the Bloomberg median. This week the storage number surprised us in the South Central and Pacific regions. In the South Central our flow model predicted much weaker withdrawals than what actually materialized. If we use a regional supply/demand approach to infer the storage withdrawals we can see power demand was stronger than expected due to high ERCOT non-wind/non-nuc.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 03, 2017
August 3, 2017
The EIA reported a 20 bcf injection for the week ending July 27th. The number matched our estimate and was 1 bcf higher than the Bloomberg median. After our flow model’s large miss last week, specifically in the South Central, we spent time investigating power generation levels in the region. A large part of last week’s miss was the combination of the sustained heat and high non-nuclear, non-wind power generation in the ERCOT , leading to much stronger pulls than our flow model predicted. T.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 27, 2017
July 27, 2017
The EIA reported a 17 bcf injection for the week ending July 20th. The number was 7 bcf lower than both our flow model and the Bloomberg median. This week our model ran into difficulties estimating the South Central and the Midwest regions, together the regions accounted for 5 bcf and 3 bcf of the error, respectively. In both these regions we rely on regressions to supplement our model (due to the lack of visibility on the intrastate pipelines in the regions). What caused the error in our re.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 20, 2017
July 20, 2017
The EIA reported a +28 bcf injection for the week ending July 13th. The number was -5 bcf lower than both our flow model and the Bloomberg median. The two regions that led to our model’s 5 bcf miss were the Midwest and the South Central. In the Midwest, regional balances help explain the stronger than anticipated storage draws: gas power burns were up almost 4 bcf, exports were up 1 bcf and imports were flat week over week, explaining 5 bcf of the 6 bcf drop we saw in that region (our flow m.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 13, 2017
July 13, 2017
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the injection season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a +57 bcf injection for the week ending July 6th. The number was -5 bcf lower than the +61 bcf our flow model had anticipated on Tuesday and -3 bcf below the Bloomberg median. The largest difference between our model’s prediction and the EIA’s number was in the South Central, specifically salt cavern storage withdrawals, where our estimate of a slight withdrawal wa.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 07, 2017
July 7, 2017
The EIA reported a +72 bcf injection for the week ending June 29. The number was 7 bcf higher than the 65 bcf mark our flow model had anticipated on Monday and 6 bcf above the Bloomberg median. The largest difference between our model’s prediction and the EIA’s number was in the Pacific region, where the EIA -reported injections were 5 bcf above what our model anticipated. Gas-fired power burns declined in the Pacific region through the reference week, as the Southern California heat wave s.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| June 29, 2017
June 29, 2017
The EIA reported a +46 bcf injection for the week ending June 22. The number was -8 bcf below the +54 bcf mark our flow model had anticipated on Tuesday and -6 bcf below the Bloomberg median. Our storage model predicted slightly stronger builds in the Midwest, Mountain and Pacific (higher by 1 bcf each), but most of the overestimate was in the South Central. While our flow model suggested injections should have been flat week-over-week, export and power balances within the South Central show.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| June 22, 2017
June 22, 2017
The EIA reported a +61 bcf injection for the week ending June 15. The number was +5 bcf above the +56 bcf mark our flow model had anticipated on Tuesday and +6 bcf above the Bloomberg median. The region that deviated the most from the model’s estimate was the Midwest, where injections were stronger than anticipated. Our flow model suggested that injections should have decreased modestly week over week and was supported by the increased power burns and PWCDDS . However injections actually ca.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| June 15, 2017
June 15, 2017
The EIA reported a +78 bcf injection for the week ending June 8. The number was +9 bcf below the +87 bcf mark our flow model had anticipated on Tuesday and +10 bcf below the Bloomberg median. The two regions where our flow model was off were the Midwest and South Central – both regions injected 5 bcf less than our model had predicted. These two regions have occasionally proven difficult for our flow model to predict due to the lack of reporting from intrastate systems in those regions. Takin.....