EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 02, 2017
March 2, 2017
The EIA reported a +7 bcf injection for the week ending February 23, the first February build ever reported. Our regional flow model’s entire miss was concentrated in the South Central region. Pinning down this week’s estimate was a challenge (as it usually is following a large miss). Our nationwide flow models indicated a range of -2/+2 and we settled for a flat inventory for the week. A linear extrapolation of historical counted vs. measured inventory change suggested a draw as large as -1.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 23, 2017
February 23, 2017
The EIA reported a -89 bcf withdrawal for the week ending February 16, a much stronger draw than our estimate of -74 bcf and also heavier than the Bloomberg median at -81 bcf. This was one of the largest misses of our model. At a regional level, once again, Midwest and South Central accounted for the majority of the miss at 12 bcf. We believe two factors contributed to the size of the error. First, one of the systems we track posted a very small change in its inventory. Given the location an.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 16, 2017
February 16, 2017
The EIA reported a -114 bcf withdrawal for the week ending February 9, below our estimate of -120 bcf and the Bloomberg median at -124 bcf. Today’s number marks a smaller draw than the low-end of withdrawals posted on Bloomberg estimates. As for the regional breakdown, all regions except for the South Central were within a few bcf. At -22bcf, the EIA -posted draw was well below our model’s -28 bcf (and also below what simple arithmetic would suggest with the EIA posting -6 bcf and -18 bcf f.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 09, 2017
February 9, 2017
The EIA reported a -152 bcf withdrawal for the week ending February 2, in line with our estimate of -153 bcf and the Bloomberg median at -152 bcf. Today’s number included a reclassification of 5 bcf from working gas to base gas in the Pacific region, bringing the implied flows out of storage to -147 bcf. Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the withdrawal season are included in the attachment.
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 02, 2017
February 2, 2017
The EIA reported a -87 bcf withdrawal for the week ending January 26, in line with our estimate of -87 bcf and the Bloomberg median at -87 bcf. Yet, our victory lap was cut short by the regional breakdown. Once again, our models missed the Midwest and South Central inventory changes by a wide margin, overestimating Midwest draws and underestimating South Central call on storage. While deviation from normal weather can play a role (seasonality does play a role in our models), ultimately, thes.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 26, 2017
January 26, 2017
The EIA reported a -119 bcf withdrawal for the week ending January 19, a slightly smaller draw than our estimate of -121 bcf and slightly larger than the Bloomberg median at -117 bcf. Despite a nationwide model output that was in line with the estimate reported by the EIA , our regional breakdown differed significantly from the EIA’s. Last week, most of the miss in our regional breakdown came from Midwest as our model posted -78 bcf vs EIA’s -70 bcf. This week our model underestimated East .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 12, 2017
January 12, 2017
The EIA reported a -151 bcf withdrawal for the week ending January 5, a larger draw than our estimate of -140 bcf and the Bloomberg median at -143 bcf. Another holiday week, another surprise. Our models missed both holiday week numbers by 10 bcf, albeit in opposing directions. At a regional level, our biggest miss today was in South Central. While the EIA -reported total draw from storage over the past two weeks matches our combined output over the same period, we’re puzzled by the swing. Tha.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 05, 2017
January 5, 2017
The EIA reported a -49 bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 29, a much smaller draw than our estimate of -61 bcf and the Bloomberg median at -72 bcf. Barring a reporting error, we should look for an explanation in production and power burns. A supply boost would be expected at an average HH cash price of $3.61/mmbtu. Any incremental gas that was brought online during that period likely remained outside the reach of our scrape models, mostly in South Central. Indeed, salts injected +19 b.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 29, 2016
December 29, 2016
The EIA reported a -237 bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 22, a slightly smaller draw than our estimate of -245 bcf but larger than the Bloomberg median at -227 bcf. Even after the number was released and entered into our model, our model refused to provide a draw smaller than -242 bcf. We believe that differential may be due a holiday effect, limitations of the NG system, or of our model. Our Lower 48 model has been providing reasonably good results, but region-level estimates t.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 22, 2016
December 22, 2016
The EIA reported a -209 bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 15, a slightly larger draw than our estimate of -206 bcf and the Bloomberg median at -206 bcf. For the most part, today’s withdrawal suggests that last week’s -147 bcf was an outlier. There will be no commentary this week.