EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 15, 2016
December 15, 2016
The EIA reported a -147 bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 8, a dramatically larger draw than our estimate of -131 bcf and the Bloomberg median at -134 bcf. Today’s number caught us by surprise and our regional models provided erratic estimates in multiple regions. While “the return from the holiday effect” can present itself as a comforting thought, flow-based models should not have been as severely impacted by the holidays as observed this week. A likely explanation for the large .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 08, 2016
December 8, 2016
The EIA reported a -42 bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 1, a larger inventory drop than our estimate of -39 bcf and in line with the Bloomberg median. Our regional models performed reasonably well, with the Mountain region giving the largest error (+1 bcf vs. -2 bcf reported). This was the second week in a row where the standard deviation in the estimates submitted to Bloomberg was 9 bcf. The large variation in the submitted numbers can be partially explained by the impact of the .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 25, 2016
November 25, 2016
The EIA reported a -2 bcf withdrawal for the week ending November 17, the first inventory drop in the winter of 2016-17. Our flow model showed a build of +1 bcf for the reference week, while the Bloomberg median predicted a build of +6 bcf. There will be no commentary this week.
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 17, 2016
November 17, 2016
The EIA reported a +30 bcf injection for the week ending November 10, above our estimate of +21 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +29 bcf. As for the regional breakdown, we underestimated the build in South Central and the Midwest. On November 10, the 7-day moving average HH-front month spread reached its lowest November level since 2011 (-$0.51/mmbtu). That incentive, combined with mild weather likely caused our flow model miss the mark. The weather argument also holds for the Midwest – the e.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 03, 2016
November 3, 2016
The EIA reported a +54 bcf injection for the week ending October 27, below our estimate of +58 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +56 bcf. As for the regional breakdown, we slightly underestimated the build in South Central and exceeded EIA’s estimates in the East and Midwest. As of October 27, salts reached 374 bcf, only 8 bcf below their highest-ever level (November 20, 2015). Our flow models counted +8.7 bcf injected into salt caverns during the week ending today. While the final salt build.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 27, 2016
October 27, 2016
The EIA reported a +73 bcf injection for the week ending October 20, above our estimate of +67 bcf and in line with the Bloomberg median at +73 bcf. The large deviation from normal weather (28 observed GWHDDs vs. 72 normal and 31 observed PWCDDs vs 11 normal) increased the error term in our flow model that uses regional weather as an input across areas with limited pipeline visibility.
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 20, 2016
October 20, 2016
The EIA reported a +77 bcf injection for the week ending October 13, slightly above our estimate of +76 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +74 bcf. With South Central disconnecting from the rest of the market, our regional models have been providing inaccurate results over the past few weeks. This week was no exception. As predicted in last week’s note, salt domes posted a record-high injection of +25 bcf for the week, in line with our sub-regional model output. Our models were calling for a.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 13, 2016
October 13, 2016
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a +79 bcf injection for the week ending October 6, below our estimate of +86 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +88 bcf. Our regional breakdown also provided inaccurate results and we’ll focus on East and South Central today. In the East, our scrape model counted 12.6 bcf of gas going into storage during the reference week and provided a 21/22 bcf build estimate vs the EIA reported +14 bcf. Gi.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 06, 2016
October 6, 2016
The EIA reported a +80 bcf injection for the week ending September 29, above our estimate of +74 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +73 bcf. Out of the “big three” regions, our models got East right and underestimated Midwest and South Central injections. In the case of Midwest, population-weighted cooling degree days dropped sharply during the reference week – from a 7.02 on September 23, to 0.03 on September 29. On a weekly basis, the region lost 24 CDDs while adding 15 HDDs. Looking at the.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 29, 2016
September 29, 2016
The EIA reported a +49 bcf injection for the week ending September 22, in line with our estimate of +49 bcf and lower than the Bloomberg median at +53 bcf. While we’re happy about the output of our “precious” flow model, the dynamics that led to this accurate forecast are worth a discussion. During the reference week, lower-48 observed 3 HDDs and 62 CDDs compared to the normal level of 23 HDDs and 32 CDDs for this time of the year. Given the nature of the flow models, and limitations of da.....