EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 22, 2016
September 22, 2016
The EIA reported a +52 bcf injection for the week ending September 15, coming in above our estimate of +46 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +50 bcf. Compared to our East and Midwest build expectations of 17 bcf and 26 bcf, EIA reported an estimated injection of 19 bcf and 31 bcf, respectively. There will be no commentary this week.
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 15, 2016
September 15, 2016
The EIA reported a +62 bcf injection for the week ending September 8, coming in above our estimate of +58 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +61 bcf. Practically all the miss in our model came from the South Central, where the inventory-build in the salt domes across the South Central remained relatively robust despite the strength in cash. In last week’s report, we emphasized the strength in Henry Hub cash prices and the role it played in the smaller-than-expected bui.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 08, 2016
September 8, 2016
The EIA reported a +36 bcf injection for the week ending September 1, coming in below our estimate of +41 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +42 bcf. Midwest injection exceeded our expectation by 4 bcf, and our model failed to capture the sharp withdrawals in South Central, especially among non-salt fields. Both regions have limited flow visibility and it is hard to speculate on the specifics of the causes, especially in the Midwest. As for South Central, cash front-month spread approached 10.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 01, 2016
September 1, 2016
The EIA reported a +51 bcf injection for the week ending August 25, reminding us the importance of discipline and focus in modeling. Our pipeline scrape model showed a +53 injection, but given the concerns we raised in our Tuesday blurb, we decided to publish the output of our secondary models. Our S&D estimate provided a +43 bcf for the reference week, in line with the Bloomberg median. At a regional level, inventory build in the Midwest once again caused the biggest surprise. East provid.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 25, 2016
August 25, 2016
The EIA reported a +11 bcf injection for the week ending August 18, coming in below our own number of +14 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +15 bcf. Midwest was the outlier region in this week’s results, with extreme heat in the East likely exacerbating the anomaly in the Midwest. Our model over-estimated the inventory build in the Midwest ( LCMC : +19 bcf) and underestimated it in the East ( LCMC : +9 bcf). Given that TCO and DOM injected a total of +11.8 bcf for the week, it was clear .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 18, 2016
August 18, 2016
The EIA reported a +22 bcf withdrawal for the week ending August 18, coming in below our own number of +28 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +25 bcf. This is the second week in a row our model overestimated the inventory build. Our scrape-based flow model indicated a +31 bcf build, but given the extreme ERCOT non-wind/non-nuc power demand surge, we had manually cut that figure to 28 bcf. In essence, today’s miss was a result of treating last week’s number as an outlier and not adjusting the .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 04, 2016
August 4, 2016
The EIA reported a -6 bcf withdrawal for the week ending July 28, coming in below our own number of -3 bcf and the Bloomberg median at -2 bcf. At a regional level, we underestimated the build in the East and the draw in South Central. Our model was also slightly off in the Mountain region. In last week’s storage report, we highlighted the factors that could push today’s draw beyond modeled values. As a policy, we publish the outcome of our models, but in hindsight, this was a week that called .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 28, 2016
July 28, 2016
The EIA reported a +17 bcf injection for the week ending July 21, coming in below our own number of +25 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +26 bcf. At a regional level, South Central represented the largest miss. Today’s inventory build in the teens made us look back a decade – the last time natural gas markets recorded a July injection in the teens was the week ending July 28, 2006 (+19 bcf). It is also worth noting that the small build for that week was preceded and followed by a withdrawal (.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 21, 2016
July 21, 2016
The EIA reported a +34 bcf injection for the week ending July 14, coming in below our own number and the Bloomberg median at +39 bcf. At a regional level, our biggest miss was in the Midwest. With the two largest fields in the state of California not allowed to inject, a small draw in the Pacific was to be expected. Aliso Canyon is now partially allowed to withdraw – but not inject – gas to meet peak summer day demand, while McDonald Island remains offline. Operated by PG&E, McDonald Island st.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 14, 2016
July 14, 2016
The EIA reported a +64 bcf injection for the week ending July 7, coming in line with our own number and the Bloomberg median at +62 bcf. At a regional level, we missed the South Central injection with the second shoe dropping in the East. This is the second week in a row where we failed to account for interregional dynamics (last week’s breakdown missed the South Central – Midwest pair). Figure 1 helps us visually determine the price level where NG started to lose ground to coal in MI.....