EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 12, 2017
January 12, 2017
The EIA reported a -151 bcf withdrawal for the week ending January 5, a larger draw than our estimate of -140 bcf and the Bloomberg median at -143 bcf. Another holiday week, another surprise. Our models missed both holiday week numbers by 10 bcf, albeit in opposing directions. At a regional level, our biggest miss today was in South Central. While the EIA -reported total draw from storage over the past two weeks matches our combined output over the same period, we’re puzzled by the swing. Tha.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 05, 2017
January 5, 2017
The EIA reported a -49 bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 29, a much smaller draw than our estimate of -61 bcf and the Bloomberg median at -72 bcf. Barring a reporting error, we should look for an explanation in production and power burns. A supply boost would be expected at an average HH cash price of $3.61/mmbtu. Any incremental gas that was brought online during that period likely remained outside the reach of our scrape models, mostly in South Central. Indeed, salts injected +19 b.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 29, 2016
December 29, 2016
The EIA reported a -237 bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 22, a slightly smaller draw than our estimate of -245 bcf but larger than the Bloomberg median at -227 bcf. Even after the number was released and entered into our model, our model refused to provide a draw smaller than -242 bcf. We believe that differential may be due a holiday effect, limitations of the NG system, or of our model. Our Lower 48 model has been providing reasonably good results, but region-level estimates t.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 22, 2016
December 22, 2016
The EIA reported a -209 bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 15, a slightly larger draw than our estimate of -206 bcf and the Bloomberg median at -206 bcf. For the most part, today’s withdrawal suggests that last week’s -147 bcf was an outlier. There will be no commentary this week.
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 15, 2016
December 15, 2016
The EIA reported a -147 bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 8, a dramatically larger draw than our estimate of -131 bcf and the Bloomberg median at -134 bcf. Today’s number caught us by surprise and our regional models provided erratic estimates in multiple regions. While “the return from the holiday effect” can present itself as a comforting thought, flow-based models should not have been as severely impacted by the holidays as observed this week. A likely explanation for the large .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 08, 2016
December 8, 2016
The EIA reported a -42 bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 1, a larger inventory drop than our estimate of -39 bcf and in line with the Bloomberg median. Our regional models performed reasonably well, with the Mountain region giving the largest error (+1 bcf vs. -2 bcf reported). This was the second week in a row where the standard deviation in the estimates submitted to Bloomberg was 9 bcf. The large variation in the submitted numbers can be partially explained by the impact of the .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 25, 2016
November 25, 2016
The EIA reported a -2 bcf withdrawal for the week ending November 17, the first inventory drop in the winter of 2016-17. Our flow model showed a build of +1 bcf for the reference week, while the Bloomberg median predicted a build of +6 bcf. There will be no commentary this week.
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 17, 2016
November 17, 2016
The EIA reported a +30 bcf injection for the week ending November 10, above our estimate of +21 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +29 bcf. As for the regional breakdown, we underestimated the build in South Central and the Midwest. On November 10, the 7-day moving average HH-front month spread reached its lowest November level since 2011 (-$0.51/mmbtu). That incentive, combined with mild weather likely caused our flow model miss the mark. The weather argument also holds for the Midwest – the e.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 03, 2016
November 3, 2016
The EIA reported a +54 bcf injection for the week ending October 27, below our estimate of +58 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +56 bcf. As for the regional breakdown, we slightly underestimated the build in South Central and exceeded EIA’s estimates in the East and Midwest. As of October 27, salts reached 374 bcf, only 8 bcf below their highest-ever level (November 20, 2015). Our flow models counted +8.7 bcf injected into salt caverns during the week ending today. While the final salt build.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 27, 2016
October 27, 2016
The EIA reported a +73 bcf injection for the week ending October 20, above our estimate of +67 bcf and in line with the Bloomberg median at +73 bcf. The large deviation from normal weather (28 observed GWHDDs vs. 72 normal and 31 observed PWCDDs vs 11 normal) increased the error term in our flow model that uses regional weather as an input across areas with limited pipeline visibility.