EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 20, 2016
October 20, 2016
The EIA reported a +77 bcf injection for the week ending October 13, slightly above our estimate of +76 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +74 bcf. With South Central disconnecting from the rest of the market, our regional models have been providing inaccurate results over the past few weeks. This week was no exception. As predicted in last week’s note, salt domes posted a record-high injection of +25 bcf for the week, in line with our sub-regional model output. Our models were calling for a.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 13, 2016
October 13, 2016
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a +79 bcf injection for the week ending October 6, below our estimate of +86 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +88 bcf. Our regional breakdown also provided inaccurate results and we’ll focus on East and South Central today. In the East, our scrape model counted 12.6 bcf of gas going into storage during the reference week and provided a 21/22 bcf build estimate vs the EIA reported +14 bcf. Gi.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 06, 2016
October 6, 2016
The EIA reported a +80 bcf injection for the week ending September 29, above our estimate of +74 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +73 bcf. Out of the “big three” regions, our models got East right and underestimated Midwest and South Central injections. In the case of Midwest, population-weighted cooling degree days dropped sharply during the reference week – from a 7.02 on September 23, to 0.03 on September 29. On a weekly basis, the region lost 24 CDDs while adding 15 HDDs. Looking at the.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 29, 2016
September 29, 2016
The EIA reported a +49 bcf injection for the week ending September 22, in line with our estimate of +49 bcf and lower than the Bloomberg median at +53 bcf. While we’re happy about the output of our “precious” flow model, the dynamics that led to this accurate forecast are worth a discussion. During the reference week, lower-48 observed 3 HDDs and 62 CDDs compared to the normal level of 23 HDDs and 32 CDDs for this time of the year. Given the nature of the flow models, and limitations of da.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 22, 2016
September 22, 2016
The EIA reported a +52 bcf injection for the week ending September 15, coming in above our estimate of +46 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +50 bcf. Compared to our East and Midwest build expectations of 17 bcf and 26 bcf, EIA reported an estimated injection of 19 bcf and 31 bcf, respectively. There will be no commentary this week.
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 15, 2016
September 15, 2016
The EIA reported a +62 bcf injection for the week ending September 8, coming in above our estimate of +58 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +61 bcf. Practically all the miss in our model came from the South Central, where the inventory-build in the salt domes across the South Central remained relatively robust despite the strength in cash. In last week’s report, we emphasized the strength in Henry Hub cash prices and the role it played in the smaller-than-expected bui.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 08, 2016
September 8, 2016
The EIA reported a +36 bcf injection for the week ending September 1, coming in below our estimate of +41 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +42 bcf. Midwest injection exceeded our expectation by 4 bcf, and our model failed to capture the sharp withdrawals in South Central, especially among non-salt fields. Both regions have limited flow visibility and it is hard to speculate on the specifics of the causes, especially in the Midwest. As for South Central, cash front-month spread approached 10.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 01, 2016
September 1, 2016
The EIA reported a +51 bcf injection for the week ending August 25, reminding us the importance of discipline and focus in modeling. Our pipeline scrape model showed a +53 injection, but given the concerns we raised in our Tuesday blurb, we decided to publish the output of our secondary models. Our S&D estimate provided a +43 bcf for the reference week, in line with the Bloomberg median. At a regional level, inventory build in the Midwest once again caused the biggest surprise. East provid.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 25, 2016
August 25, 2016
The EIA reported a +11 bcf injection for the week ending August 18, coming in below our own number of +14 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +15 bcf. Midwest was the outlier region in this week’s results, with extreme heat in the East likely exacerbating the anomaly in the Midwest. Our model over-estimated the inventory build in the Midwest ( LCMC : +19 bcf) and underestimated it in the East ( LCMC : +9 bcf). Given that TCO and DOM injected a total of +11.8 bcf for the week, it was clear .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 18, 2016
August 18, 2016
The EIA reported a +22 bcf withdrawal for the week ending August 18, coming in below our own number of +28 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +25 bcf. This is the second week in a row our model overestimated the inventory build. Our scrape-based flow model indicated a +31 bcf build, but given the extreme ERCOT non-wind/non-nuc power demand surge, we had manually cut that figure to 28 bcf. In essence, today’s miss was a result of treating last week’s number as an outlier and not adjusting the .....