EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| August 04, 2016
August 4, 2016
The EIA reported a -6 bcf withdrawal for the week ending July 28, coming in below our own number of -3 bcf and the Bloomberg median at -2 bcf. At a regional level, we underestimated the build in the East and the draw in South Central. Our model was also slightly off in the Mountain region. In last week’s storage report, we highlighted the factors that could push today’s draw beyond modeled values. As a policy, we publish the outcome of our models, but in hindsight, this was a week that called .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 28, 2016
July 28, 2016
The EIA reported a +17 bcf injection for the week ending July 21, coming in below our own number of +25 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +26 bcf. At a regional level, South Central represented the largest miss. Today’s inventory build in the teens made us look back a decade – the last time natural gas markets recorded a July injection in the teens was the week ending July 28, 2006 (+19 bcf). It is also worth noting that the small build for that week was preceded and followed by a withdrawal (.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 21, 2016
July 21, 2016
The EIA reported a +34 bcf injection for the week ending July 14, coming in below our own number and the Bloomberg median at +39 bcf. At a regional level, our biggest miss was in the Midwest. With the two largest fields in the state of California not allowed to inject, a small draw in the Pacific was to be expected. Aliso Canyon is now partially allowed to withdraw – but not inject – gas to meet peak summer day demand, while McDonald Island remains offline. Operated by PG&E, McDonald Island st.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 14, 2016
July 14, 2016
The EIA reported a +64 bcf injection for the week ending July 7, coming in line with our own number and the Bloomberg median at +62 bcf. At a regional level, we missed the South Central injection with the second shoe dropping in the East. This is the second week in a row where we failed to account for interregional dynamics (last week’s breakdown missed the South Central – Midwest pair). Figure 1 helps us visually determine the price level where NG started to lose ground to coal in MI.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| July 07, 2016
July 7, 2016
The EIA reported a +39 bcf injection for the week ending June 30, coming in line with our own number and below the Bloomberg median at +42 bcf. At a regional level, we underestimated injections in the Midwest while allocating a smaller draw to South Central. There will be no commentary this week. Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the injection season are included in the attachment.
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| June 30, 2016
June 30, 2016
The EIA reported a +42 bcf injection for the week ending June 23, coming in line with our own number and below the Bloomberg median at +45 bcf. Unlike the accounting-driven pull in the Pacific, South Central posted a real withdrawal as a region, not just in salts. On May 25, 2016, SoCal posted a critical notice titled “Aliso Canyon Update”, quantifying the gas volume lost during the SS-25 leak at 4.62 bcf. That note did not set a date on when the system-wide inventory would be adjusted to re.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| June 23, 2016
June 23, 2016
The EIA reported a +62 bcf injection for the week ending June 16, coming in line with our own number and the Bloomberg median at +60 bcf. Regionally, salt domes withdrew less than expected, but the non-salt build was smaller as well leading to a lower than expected overall injection for South Central. That would explain last week’s cash strength and implies another small injection or possible withdrawal for the current reference week given the strength in cash prices. Despite an increase in.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| June 16, 2016
June 16, 2016
The EIA reported a +69 bcf injection for the week ending June 9, coming in above our own number at +60 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +65 bcf. We chose not to make any adjustments following last week’s bullish surprise from the EIA even though the market seemed to have already been preparing itself for a bearish surprise from the EIA based on where the ICE storage swap was trading all week and the price reaction today. All of the difference between our scrape number and EIA’s estimate w.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| June 09, 2016
June 9, 2016
The EIA reported a +65 bcf injection for the week ending June 2, coming in below our own number at +73 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +76 bcf. Our model was spot on in the Midwest, but overestimated injections by all other regions, led by an estimated +6 bcf in the Pacific compared to +3 bcf reported by the EIA . We missed the East and South Central by 2 bcf, and the Mountain by 1 bcf. While these misses can be technically attributed to either stronger demand or weaker supply, we suspect .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| June 02, 2016
June 2, 2016
The EIA reported a +82 bcf injection for the week ending May 26, coming in line with our own number at +81 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +83 bcf. All regions experienced stronger injections compared to the previous week, except for salt domes that actually withdrew -2 bcf. With salt dome operators either unwilling or unable to inject over the reference week, Henry Hub cash prices saw increased pressure with the cash-prompt spread widening significantly ahead of the Memorial Day holiday weeke.....