EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 13, 2017
April 13, 2017
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the injection season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a +10 bcf injection for the week ending April 6, slightly below the +13 bcf that our flow model had anticipated on Tuesday and exactly in line with the Bloomberg median. Our regional flow model performed well in most regions save for the Midwest where it predicted a small injection as opposed to the observed withdrawal. With this week being the Yankees home open.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| April 06, 2017
April 6, 2017
The EIA reported a +2 bcf injection for the week ending March 30, exactly in line with what our flow model had anticipated on Tuesday and 6 bcf below the Bloomberg median of 8. Our regional models also performed well, with the largest difference being only 2 bcf. Regionally the largest difference was between the East and South Central regions, which can be partially explained through increases in flows through Florida Gas Transmission despite only modest GWCDDs, suggesting slightly stronger .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 30, 2017
March 30, 2017
The EIA reported a -43 bcf withdrawal for the week ending March 23, a slightly larger draw than the -42 bcf our flow model had anticipated and exactly in line with the Bloomberg median of -43 bcf. As for our regional breakdown, the largest difference from the EIA came in our balance between the South Central and Midwest, where we assumed a net injection in the South Central and stronger withdrawals in the Midwest. The perfect balance between these two regions tends to be elusive, while som.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 23, 2017
March 23, 2017
The EIA reported a -150 bcf withdrawal for the week ending March 16, a larger draw than the -143 bcf our flow model had anticipated and a smaller pull than the Bloomberg median of -153 bcf. As for our regional breakdown, the largest miss came in South Central where we assumed more modest withdrawals from non-salt caverns while the EIA reported a strong 16 bcf pull. As noted in last week’s summary, our preliminary S/D balances suggested a draw of -150 bcf for the reference week. Yet, on Tue.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 16, 2017
March 16, 2017
The EIA reported a -53 bcf withdrawal for the week ending March 9, a smaller draw than the -59 bcf our model had anticipated and also below the Bloomberg median of -57 bcf. As for a regional breakdown, the largest miss came in South Central where we had flat inventory, while the EIA reported a +5 bcf injection. The reference week was special for Texas – and not just because the Houston Rodeo began on March 7. At 11.8 aGW, ERCOT recorded its highest ever weekly wind generation, breaking t.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 09, 2017
March 9, 2017
The EIA reported a -68 bcf withdrawal for the week ending March 2, a larger draw than the amount our model anticipated and also well above the Bloomberg median of -62 bcf. To be fair, our flow model performed quite well this week: the implied flow by the EIA was indeed -64 bcf, and a 4 bcf reclassification from working gas to base gas in salt domes raised that number to -68 bcf. The salt reclassification was somewhat surprising as salt domes have much tighter margin of errors in their invent.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| March 02, 2017
March 2, 2017
The EIA reported a +7 bcf injection for the week ending February 23, the first February build ever reported. Our regional flow model’s entire miss was concentrated in the South Central region. Pinning down this week’s estimate was a challenge (as it usually is following a large miss). Our nationwide flow models indicated a range of -2/+2 and we settled for a flat inventory for the week. A linear extrapolation of historical counted vs. measured inventory change suggested a draw as large as -1.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 23, 2017
February 23, 2017
The EIA reported a -89 bcf withdrawal for the week ending February 16, a much stronger draw than our estimate of -74 bcf and also heavier than the Bloomberg median at -81 bcf. This was one of the largest misses of our model. At a regional level, once again, Midwest and South Central accounted for the majority of the miss at 12 bcf. We believe two factors contributed to the size of the error. First, one of the systems we track posted a very small change in its inventory. Given the location an.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 16, 2017
February 16, 2017
The EIA reported a -114 bcf withdrawal for the week ending February 9, below our estimate of -120 bcf and the Bloomberg median at -124 bcf. Today’s number marks a smaller draw than the low-end of withdrawals posted on Bloomberg estimates. As for the regional breakdown, all regions except for the South Central were within a few bcf. At -22bcf, the EIA -posted draw was well below our model’s -28 bcf (and also below what simple arithmetic would suggest with the EIA posting -6 bcf and -18 bcf f.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 09, 2017
February 9, 2017
The EIA reported a -152 bcf withdrawal for the week ending February 2, in line with our estimate of -153 bcf and the Bloomberg median at -152 bcf. Today’s number included a reclassification of 5 bcf from working gas to base gas in the Pacific region, bringing the implied flows out of storage to -147 bcf. Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the withdrawal season are included in the attachment.