EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 18, 2016
February 18, 2016
The EIA reported a -158 bcf withdrawal for the week ending February 11, coming in stronger than our own number at -150 bcf, and the Bloomberg median at -152 bcf. Following the recovery in power burns last week, this draw implied the tightest weather-adjusted supply and demand balance for the year so far. Regionally the surprise came from a larger than expected draw from salt-dome facilities, but that was not because our model was skewed by last week’s bearish miss. Last week we talked abou.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 11, 2016
February 11, 2016
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the remainder of the withdrawal season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a -70 bcf withdrawal for the week ending February 4, coming in weaker than our own number at -76 bcf, and the Bloomberg median at -77 bcf. This implies a significant loosening of the supply and demand balances due to very weak power burns at the beginning of the reference week. Regionally, the biggest surprise was the +9 bcf injection into salt-dom.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 04, 2016
February 4, 2016
The EIA reported a -152 bcf withdrawal for the week ending January 28, coming in-line with our own number at -151 bcf, and stronger than the Bloomberg median at -150 bcf. The draw implies a looser balance versus the previous week as a result of the demand destruction brought on by superstorm Jonas. However, this weekend we saw a further loosening of the supply and demand balance driven primarily by weak power burns. Last week we said that the supply and demand balance implied by the EIA .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 28, 2016
January 28, 2016
The EIA reported a -211 bcf withdrawal for the week ending January 21, coming in-line with our own number at -211 bcf, and stronger than the Bloomberg median at -207 bcf. The regional breakdown was also close to expectations once allowing for rounding errors. This implies another tightening of the balances compared to the previous week as the EIA number once again agrees with scrape models rather than the weather-driven supply and demand models. Last week we talked about the temporary na.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 21, 2016
January 21, 2016
The EIA reported a -178 bcf withdrawal for the week ending January 14, coming in weaker than our own number at -188 bcf, and the Bloomberg median at -184 bcf. Despite stronger scrapes week-on-week, the EIA was once again more in-line with weather-driven supply and demand models rather than flow models. The biggest surprise was in the East where the reported draw was 11 bcf smaller than last week, while the very strong draw in the Midwest was in-line with expectations. Adjusted for the ho.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 14, 2016
January 14, 2016
The EIA reported a -168 bcf withdrawal for the week ending January 7, coming in weaker than our own number at -175 bcf, and the Bloomberg median at -178 bcf. This would be the third week in a row of alternating surprises from the EIA following a pretty good start since they released the new regional breakdown. Regionally, the main culprit remains the Midwest as it combines with the East and South Central to swing by close to 1 bcf/d week-on-week compared to our expectations. The holiday e.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 07, 2016
January 7, 2016
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the remainder of the withdrawal season are included in the attachment. The EIA reported a -113 bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 31, coming in stronger than our own number at -103 bcf, and the Bloomberg median at -100 bcf. Today’s report also marked the first time a revision was acknowledged since the EIA transitioned to a 5-region era with tighter revision tolerances. As a result of the 4 bcf reclassification (from base to.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 31, 2015
December 31, 2015
The EIA reported a -58 bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 24, coming in lighter than our own number at -70 bcf, but stronger than the Bloomberg median at -54 bcf. Regionally the surprise came from the South Central and the East. After a few weeks of relatively tight numbers, the EIA estimate came in more in line with weather-driven supply and demand models rather than the scrapes. The two large draws reported by the East systems on Monday certainly skewed our model towards a stronge.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 24, 2015
December 24, 2015
The EIA reported a -32 bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 17, coming in line with our own number at -33 bcf, but stronger than the Bloomberg median at -26 bcf. Compared to last week, this draw implies a significant tightening of the weather-adjusted balance after losing -18 TDDs week-on-week. Stronger power burns can explain some of the tightness, but production declines could be playing a role as well. As weather forecasts turn colder for the 6-15 day period, we should get a chance t.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 17, 2015
December 17, 2015
Please note our extended U.S. and Canada tables covering the remainder of the withdrawal season are included in the attachment. We overwrite weekly estimates with monthly releases as monthly EIA data becomes available. The EIA reported a -34 bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 10, coming in lighter than our own number at -38 bcf and the Bloomberg median at -40 bcf. After a few weeks of bullish surprises from the EIA , the market seems to have adjusted its expectations towards str.....