EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 02, 2017
February 2, 2017
The EIA reported a -87 bcf withdrawal for the week ending January 26, in line with our estimate of -87 bcf and the Bloomberg median at -87 bcf. Yet, our victory lap was cut short by the regional breakdown. Once again, our models missed the Midwest and South Central inventory changes by a wide margin, overestimating Midwest draws and underestimating South Central call on storage. While deviation from normal weather can play a role (seasonality does play a role in our models), ultimately, thes.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 26, 2017
January 26, 2017
The EIA reported a -119 bcf withdrawal for the week ending January 19, a slightly smaller draw than our estimate of -121 bcf and slightly larger than the Bloomberg median at -117 bcf. Despite a nationwide model output that was in line with the estimate reported by the EIA , our regional breakdown differed significantly from the EIA’s. Last week, most of the miss in our regional breakdown came from Midwest as our model posted -78 bcf vs EIA’s -70 bcf. This week our model underestimated East .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 12, 2017
January 12, 2017
The EIA reported a -151 bcf withdrawal for the week ending January 5, a larger draw than our estimate of -140 bcf and the Bloomberg median at -143 bcf. Another holiday week, another surprise. Our models missed both holiday week numbers by 10 bcf, albeit in opposing directions. At a regional level, our biggest miss today was in South Central. While the EIA -reported total draw from storage over the past two weeks matches our combined output over the same period, we’re puzzled by the swing. Tha.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 05, 2017
January 5, 2017
The EIA reported a -49 bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 29, a much smaller draw than our estimate of -61 bcf and the Bloomberg median at -72 bcf. Barring a reporting error, we should look for an explanation in production and power burns. A supply boost would be expected at an average HH cash price of $3.61/mmbtu. Any incremental gas that was brought online during that period likely remained outside the reach of our scrape models, mostly in South Central. Indeed, salts injected +19 b.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 29, 2016
December 29, 2016
The EIA reported a -237 bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 22, a slightly smaller draw than our estimate of -245 bcf but larger than the Bloomberg median at -227 bcf. Even after the number was released and entered into our model, our model refused to provide a draw smaller than -242 bcf. We believe that differential may be due a holiday effect, limitations of the NG system, or of our model. Our Lower 48 model has been providing reasonably good results, but region-level estimates t.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 22, 2016
December 22, 2016
The EIA reported a -209 bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 15, a slightly larger draw than our estimate of -206 bcf and the Bloomberg median at -206 bcf. For the most part, today’s withdrawal suggests that last week’s -147 bcf was an outlier. There will be no commentary this week.
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 15, 2016
December 15, 2016
The EIA reported a -147 bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 8, a dramatically larger draw than our estimate of -131 bcf and the Bloomberg median at -134 bcf. Today’s number caught us by surprise and our regional models provided erratic estimates in multiple regions. While “the return from the holiday effect” can present itself as a comforting thought, flow-based models should not have been as severely impacted by the holidays as observed this week. A likely explanation for the large .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 08, 2016
December 8, 2016
The EIA reported a -42 bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 1, a larger inventory drop than our estimate of -39 bcf and in line with the Bloomberg median. Our regional models performed reasonably well, with the Mountain region giving the largest error (+1 bcf vs. -2 bcf reported). This was the second week in a row where the standard deviation in the estimates submitted to Bloomberg was 9 bcf. The large variation in the submitted numbers can be partially explained by the impact of the .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 25, 2016
November 25, 2016
The EIA reported a -2 bcf withdrawal for the week ending November 17, the first inventory drop in the winter of 2016-17. Our flow model showed a build of +1 bcf for the reference week, while the Bloomberg median predicted a build of +6 bcf. There will be no commentary this week.
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 17, 2016
November 17, 2016
The EIA reported a +30 bcf injection for the week ending November 10, above our estimate of +21 bcf and the Bloomberg median at +29 bcf. As for the regional breakdown, we underestimated the build in South Central and the Midwest. On November 10, the 7-day moving average HH-front month spread reached its lowest November level since 2011 (-$0.51/mmbtu). That incentive, combined with mild weather likely caused our flow model miss the mark. The weather argument also holds for the Midwest – the e.....