SPECTRUM
| February 23, 2021
February 23, 2021
Dear , Please find below the link to this week's detailed inventory forecast, our 4-wk storage outlook, along with natural gas trade and power sector demand estimates and highlights of reference week balances. This week's commentary discusses the issues US Gulf Coast LNG facilities faced during last week's winter storm and their differing rates of return to full utilization. For the week ending February 18, 2021, LCMC 4-wk NG storage estimate: -346, -161, -89, -93. Total -689 vs -335 LY and -344.....
CFTC COT
| February 19, 2021
February 19, 2021
Please find below the links to data and charts detailing the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders Report for the week ended February 16. We provide all Legacy and Disaggregated trader positions for natural gas, WTI, Brent, gasoline, heating oil and gasoil. Non-commercials increased net length in natural gas, WTI, Brent and heating oil , but decreased in gasoline and gasoil during the reference week. Non-commercials net length in natural gas grew by +4.4k to +392.1k in futures and rose by +13.3k to.....
NORTH AMERICAN RIG WATCH
| February 19, 2021
February 19, 2021
Please find below the links to this week's detailed rig reports and a quick recap of the North American oil and gas drilling activity as reported by Baker Hughes. US: Baker Hughes shows 396 active rigs as of February 19, 2021, unchanged from the previous week. Oil rigs decreased by -1 to 305 (ht: +1; vt-dir: -2), and gas-directed rigs increased by +1 to 91 (ht: unch; vt-dir: +1). Horizontal oil rigs increased by +1 in Bakken (ND) and by +1 in Permian (TX), while declining by -1 in Permian (NM.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 19, 2021
February 18, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -237 bcf withdrawal, 1 bcf less than our call of -238 bcf and 15 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of -252 bcf. We wish to reign in our excitement about a close call of the EIA’s reported withdrawal on account of two factors... When it comes to playing a blame game, numbers and stats can help us make any case we wish. For example, we can highlight that between Monday and Wednesday (inclusive), natural gas reached its highest share (65+%) of ERCOT power generation in at.....
NGL MARKET RECAP
| February 18, 2021
February 18, 2021
Dear , Please find below the link to this week’s NGL Market Recap, which provides an overview of North American NGL statistics as well as global LPG prices, spreads/arbitrages and ratios. Note: Abnormally wide frac spreads in this week's report are a result of extreme natural gas prices in the cash market. US regional gas prices skyrocketed due to frigid weather in the South Central and the catastrophic failure in the Texas electricity market. Data and charts of the Mont Belvieu non-LST to FEI.....
SPECTRUM
| February 16, 2021
February 16, 2021
Dear , Please find below the link to this week's detailed inventory forecast, our 4-wk storage outlook, along with natural gas trade and power sector demand estimates and highlights of reference week balances. This week's commentary discusses the record-setting supply and demand dynamics in Western Canada. For the week ending February 11, 2021, LCMC 4-wk NG storage estimate: -238, -385, -188, -145. Total -956 vs -461 LY and -427 5-yr avg. This week by region: E: -50; MW: -84; MTN: -13, PAC: -14;.....
CFTC COT
| February 12, 2021
February 12, 2021
Please find below the links to data and charts detailing the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders Report for the week ended February 09. We provide all Legacy and Disaggregated trader positions for natural gas, WTI, Brent, gasoline, heating oil and gasoil. Non-commercials increased net length in natural gas, WTI, Brent and gasoline , but decreased in heating oil and gasoil during the reference week. Non-commercials net length in natural gas rose by +33.4k to +387.6k in futures and increased by +31.....
NORTH AMERICAN RIG WATCH
| February 12, 2021
February 12, 2021
Please find below the links to this week's detailed rig reports and a quick recap of the North American oil and gas drilling activity as reported by Baker Hughes. US: Baker Hughes shows 396 active rigs as of February 12, 2021, higher by +5 from the previous week. Oil rigs increased by +7 to 306 (ht: +4; vt-dir: +3), and gas-directed rigs decreased by -2 to 90 (ht: -2; vt-dir: unch). Horizontal oil rigs increased by +2 in Permian (TX), by +1 in Bakken (ND), by +1 in Eagle Ford (TX) and by +2 i.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| February 11, 2021
February 11, 2021
Dear , The EIA reported a -171 bcf withdrawal, 8 bcf less than our call of -179 bcf and 9 bcf less than the Bloomberg median of -180 bcf. A combination of supply and demand strains has left Oklahoma short gas for tomorrow and caused next day gas prices across MidCon to spike dramatically higher, led by the $85/mmbtu print for OneOK (OGT). The incoming frigid weather creates two factors that may help the gas market not be as tight as weather forecasts and supply side predictions (i.e. freeze-offs.....
NGL MARKET RECAP
| February 10, 2021
February 10, 2021
Dear , Please find below the link to this week’s NGL Market Recap, which provides an overview of North American NGL statistics as well as global LPG prices, spreads/arbitrages and ratios. Note: Data and charts of the Mont Belvieu non-LST to FEI, Propane Arbitrage and Butane Arbitrage are not available today, due to an issue with our data provider.