MARKET INSIGHT | May 10, 2016

Seasonal Spreads On The Move

Since last October, weather has been the primary driver behind all significant price moves at the front of the curve. However, with minimal weather driven volatility in May, fundamental supply and demand factors will be the primary drivers for any deviation from the trend. As the market works its way through the front spreads and the salt dome inventory constraints, V/F should tighten inline with the declining year-on-year inventory surplus levels.

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | April 14, 2016

April 2016

Based on a 32.7 mb/d OPEC production estimate after Q1 2016, the table below shows each agency’s implied stock change for the year. Highlights from the IEA’s April 2016 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) The IEA shows a more constructive tone in their latest report. They state that the market is moving closer to a balanced environment in the second half of the year due to steady oil demand growth and lower non- OPEC supply. The agency mentions that the forthcoming Doha meeting is partly.....

SPECIAL REPORT | March 28, 2016

Summer 2016 - An Overview Of Balances

The winter of 2015-2016 verified as the warmest on record, which led to record low weather driven demand levels. Extremely weak demand in turn pushed prices towards their historical lows. Figure 1 shows the cumulative deviation of winter weather from the 30-yr normal expressed in HDDs and Figure 2 plots the corresponding pattern for winter Henry Hub prices calculated as the average of actual cash prices and implied future prices by the NYMEX strip. The close relationship between warmer than no.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | March 14, 2016

March 2016

Based on a 32.7 mb/d OPEC production estimate in 2016, the table below shows each agency’s implied stock change for the year. Highlights from the IEA’s March 2016 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) The IEA has revised 2016 Non- OPEC supply growth down by -100 kb/d to -750 kb/d YoY, driven by downward revisions to countries such as Brazil and Colombia. For the US, they forecast a decline of -530 kb/d YoY in 2016 for total oil production. They also point to a likely February draw in OECD i.....

DATA INSIGHT | February 23, 2016

Crude Loadings - Tracking Exports and Supply in Key Regions

In this Data Insight we introduce our monthly Crude Loadings report. Loading programs for some of the world’s key producing regions provide valuable insights to crude movements as well as pricing dynamics, and may serve as a bellwether to supply in these regions. In its current form, the Crude Loadings report covers over 60 distinct streams of crude across the North Sea, Africa, Middle East and FSU . We provide some details around the timeline of the loading schedules as well as definitions and.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | February 10, 2016

February 2016

The three agencies have similar assumptions for 2016 oil demand growth with estimates at +1.2-1.3 mb/d YoY. They are also in agreement with respect to Non- OPEC supply declining by around 0.6 -0.7 mb/d in 2016. Based on a 32.7 mb/d OPEC production estimate in 2016, the table below shows each agency’s implied stock change for the year. The average of their balances point to a stock build of +1.2 mb/d (~433 mb stock build) in 2016. Highlights from the IEA’s February 2016 Oil Market Repo.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | January 19, 2016

January 2016

Indonesia is now included in the OPEC numbers. Using the latest assumptions from the three agencies, if OPEC crude production is 32.2 mb/d in 2016, the table below continues to show an excess of global crude for the year. Highlights from the IEA’s January 2016 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) A very bearish tone compared to their Dec report, with the IEA acknowledging that the 1 mb/d excess supply will likely present a challenging environment in 2016. Although they anticipate Non- OPEC .....

DATA INSIGHT | December 11, 2015

Flat price heading to the $20's?

Possible implications of oil inventories and Brent spreads on crude flat price Consensus and bearish sentiment around crude prices have firmed after the OPEC meeting. Barring any exogenous shocks to the system, further pressure on prices is likely during the coming months and lower crude outright prices may be necessary to bring balance to the market more quickly as US production continues to prove resilient and Iran is likely to put an additional 500-800 kb/d in 2016, with some barrels pot.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | December 11, 2015

UPDATED December 2015

The previous email did not contain a link to the pdf. The link is included in this email and no other changes were made. Using the latest assumptions from the three agencies, if OPEC crude production is 31.5 mb/d in 2016, the table below continues to show an excess of global crude for 2016. The only number that has changed from last month’s reports is the one for the DoE, which is 26 mb higher. Highlights from the IEA’s December 2015 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) The latest IE.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | November 13, 2015

November 2015

Using the latest assumptions from the three agencies, if OPEC crude production is 31.5 mb/d in 2016, the table below shows an excess of global crude of around 260 mb according to both OPEC and the DoE. This contrasts with the 73 mb implied by the latest IEA balance. Highlights from the IEA’s November 2015 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) The latest IEA report points to a 3 billion barrel OECD oil inventory level for September, emphasizing how supply has dominated the balance dynami.....