DATA INSIGHT | October 14, 2015

Winter is coming - don't let the balancing item ruin it!

For our monthly supply and demand balances we use data published in the EIA’s Natural Gas Monthly ( NGM ). The latest update published on September 30 coincided with the release of the Natural Gas Annual ( NGA ) 2014 which included significant revisions to 2013 and 2014 data in addition to the usual changes to 2015 monthly estimates. In this Data Insight, we provide a recap of summer balances, go over revisions to the EIA data and discuss their impact on our forward looking balances for the up.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | October 13, 2015

October 2015

Highlights from the IEA’s October 2015 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) Unlike the EIA’s and OPEC’s reports, IEA’s OMR compared to the previous month’s version shows looser balances with “call on OPEC crude and stocks” flat in 2015 and down by -0.2 mb/d in 2016. It is the only one of the three reports that cut its 2016 demand and increased its 2016 non- OPEC supply. In last month’s recap, we commented on the aggressive – yet somewhat confused – bullish tone in the September OMR . With this mont.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | September 14, 2015

Global Oil Recap and Balances: September 2015

Highlights from the IEA’s September 2015 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) We found this month’s OMR a little challenging to follow. Every month, the OMR features a focus section, a one-pager at the beginning of the report. This month’s feature was titled “In a word: supply.” It starts on a bullish tone, highlighting a ~0.5 mb/d non- OPEC (US, Russia, and North Sea) supply cut in 2016, “the biggest decline in 24 years.” On the demand side of the ledger, 2016 growth is expected to be “above-trend .....

SPECIAL REPORT | August 31, 2015

Eagle Ford Oil Production - And a Better Way to Model Associated Gas Output

Shale is a very robust resource and no play captures that characteristic better than the Eagle Ford. Oil wells in Eagle Ford produce 40% of natural gas in the play and production proved more resilient than the analyst community expected at the end of last year. Moreover, the supply channel is still stuffed: a comparison between the number of drilled and/or completed wells and the number of connected wells shows that the current level of Eagle Ford oil output can be maintained for at least anothe.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | August 12, 2015

August 2015

Highlights from the IEA’s August 2015 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) The OMR this month incorporates multiple updated inputs. Indeed, both the statistical supplements that revise (and mostly finalize) 2013 data as well as the IMF’s July 2015 World Economic Outlook ( WEO ) Update introduced notable changes to IEA’s balances. Historical non- OECD data amendments had a sizable impact (approximately +0.1 mb/d) through the forecast horizon, while the remaining uptick in 2015 demand estimates (+0.2 mb.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | July 13, 2015

July 2015

Highlights from the IEA’s July 2015 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) The IEA published its 2016 balances for the first time this month. The Agency argues that the rebalancing of the oil market that was triggered by a 60% price drop a year ago “has yet to run its course,” noting that “recent developments suggest that the process will extend well into 2016.” A long list of surprises including, but not limited to, “the persistent vigor of North American supply, the odds-defying, record-breaking surge.....

SPECIAL REPORT | July 09, 2015

Great Expectations - Pricing in Future Expectations of Supply and Demand

The natural gas market seems to be struggling to price in the effects of tightening balances, while still holding on to expectations for looser balances later in the season. The demand and weather relationship outlined in our March paper was verified so far and we discuss its implications through the injection season. July marks the seventh month disappointing production was attributed to “temporary” factors (i.e. maintenance and shut-ins). Production is drastically below original expectat.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | June 11, 2015

June 2015

Highlights from the IEA’s June 2015 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) “Pockets of product tightness in effect seem to have helped support the oil complex, pulling crude prices along,” and “more than the rise in demand itself, it is that mismatch between product supply and product demand that seems to have supported prices,” the IEA writes in its latest monthly report. Moving its analysis farther downstream to refinery start-up delays and secondary unit outages, the IEA sees a wide, 700 kb/d mismat.....

SPECIAL REPORT | June 02, 2015

Coal Retirements - Incremental Gas and Forced Coal Burns

Cooling loads are finally picking up and the impact of coal retirements on year-on-year gas balances is in the spotlight. In this Special Report, we quantify the incremental gas volume that will be necessary to compensate for “lost” power from coal plants that were decommissioned since July 2014. Using our proprietary methodology focusing on unit-level generation, based on historical trends, 0.75 bcf/d of incremental gas will be needed during the peak summer months to replace the output of the.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | May 13, 2015

May 2015

Highlights from the IEA’s May 2015 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) In its latest monthly report, the IEA paints a mixed and volatile picture for oil markets: “amid continued political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa, there is no lack of upside risk to prices – and downside risk to supply – in today’s oil market. Despite tentatively bullish signals in the US…the market’s short-term fundamentals still look relatively loose.” Demand growth was left unchanged at +1.1 mb/d, although the .....