MARKET INSIGHT
| March 03, 2014
Assessing the energy implications of the Ukraine-Russia conflict
The Ukrainian uprising and brewing war between Ukraine and Russia is extensively chronicled. Less attention, however, is being paid to potential energy-related consequences of the Ukraine and Russia rift. The two countries have deep historical and economic ties, and Russian oil and natural gas supplies transit Ukraine to the European market. In this Market Insight, we explore how the escalating conflict between the two countries could impact energy markets, especially if the current flashpoints,.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| February 13, 2014
February 2014
Please find attached a PDF file with official oil supply and demand projections from the IEA , OPEC , and the US DOE . Note that the columns in the report do not line up for the U.S. DOE table as DOE’s release includes 2015, while the outlooks published by the IEA and OPEC extend through 2014. According to IEA’s Oil Market Report published earlier today, total OECD industry stocks plummeted by a further 56.8 mb in December, taking 4Q13 OECD stock draws to 1.5 mb/d, the steepest.....
MARKET INSIGHT
| February 07, 2014
Up, Up and Away - NG cash prices trading at a premium is a sign of deliverability issues
As long as 200+ bcf/week February withdrawals are on the table, we expect cash to post a high premium to NYMEX . We perceive deliverability constraints in depleted fields as the driving force behind yesterday’s surprisingly small draw and do not expect the issue to disappear in the next two weeks. Call on storage in January 2014 fell just short of 1,000 bcf (1.0 tcf!) and that draw was preceded by a -718 bcf pull in December 2013. Mechanical failures aside, there are two main reasons why an ope.....
MARKET INSIGHT
| January 23, 2014
“Water, water every where, nor any drop to drink”
Enamored with exports, the midcontinent has been left out in the cold. Resolving the supply issue will have global implications. The metaphorical sailor stuck at sea from Coleridge’s poem is the rural American household that heats with propane. With prices at all-time highs and stocks at unprecedented lows, the midcontinent propane market is far from business-as-usual. Although there are region-specific reasons for the shortage – such as an exceptionally large and wet corn crop that pushed reg.....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| January 21, 2014
January 2014
Please find attached a PDF file with official oil supply and demand projections from the IEA , OPEC , and the US DOE . The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook, published in January 2014, includes 2015 forecasts for the first time. Notably, the EIA predicts 2015 US average crude production to increase by 800 kb/d, up to 9.3 mb/d, marking the highest levels since 1972. The 2015 production estimate would be a 13.3% increase from 2014, expected to average 8.5 mb/d. Strong US crude oil produ.....
DATA INSIGHT
| January 14, 2014
It's not over yet - End-March 2014 storage inventory might surprise us to the downside
Front month natural gas prices rallied over $0.35/mmbtu since last Thursday. Although the year-on-year storage deficit was as low as -80 bcf early in the season, it ended the year at -545 bcf. A cold January 2014 is expected to match or break the all-time high storage draw of -853 bcf for the month, a feat that will have been repeated for the second time in as many months. Although the deficit will be cut down in February and (primarily) in March, our unadjusted reference case balances point to .....
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| December 11, 2013
December 2013
Please find attached a PDF file with official oil supply and demand projections from the IEA , OPEC , and the US DOE .
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| November 14, 2013
November 2013
Please find attached a PDF file with official oil supply and demand projections from the IEA , OPEC , and the US DOE .
DATA INSIGHT
| November 14, 2013
Weighing In: Implications of 2014 SPGSCI/DJUBS weights for energy commodities
In this note, we assess the potential impact of the 2014 weights (vs. 2013 levels) on index investment in energy commodities for the S&P GSCI and the Dow Jones – UBS commodity indexes.
GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES
| October 11, 2013
October 2013
Please find attached a PDF file with official oil supply and demand projections from the IEA , OPEC , and the US DOE .