MARKET INSIGHT | December 23, 2016

SPRise - Standing SPR release authorization for 2017 is 23.3-60.4m bbl, not 17.5m bbl

Three pieces of legislation that passed the U.S. Congress and were signed into law over the past twelve months – two of them after the OPEC production cut announcement – give the administration the task to sell 17.5m bbl of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve through September 2017, while also arming it with the option to offer up to another 5.8-42.9m bbl over the same time period. In this Market Insight , we comb through the existing laws that mandate the 17.5m bbl SPR sale during US .....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | December 14, 2016

December 2016

Assuming OPEC production of 33.5 mb/d for Q4 2016 and 32.7 mb/d for 2017, the table below shows each agency’s implied stock change for 2016 and 2017. Highlights from the IEA’s December 2016 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) Assuming countries adhere to the supply cut, the market will be in deficit by 0.6 mb/d in 1H17, a change from the previous outlook where the market was to balance by the end of 2017. The OPEC cut of 1.2 mb/d nearly matches the ramping up of OPEC output by 1.3 mb/d o.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | November 11, 2016

November 2016

Based on a 33.3 mb/d OPEC production estimate after Q3 2016, the table below shows each agency’s implied stock change for 2016 and 2017. Highlights from the IEA’s November 2016 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) In the latest report, the IEA does not expect sequential stock draws to arrive until after 2017 unless OPEC agrees to cut supply from the current record-high level of 33.8 mb/d. Non- OPEC oil supply was revised up by 0.1 mb/d for 2016 and 2017, driven in part by higher volumes .....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | October 13, 2016

October 2016

Based on a 32.8 mb/d OPEC production estimate after Q3 2016, the table below shows each agency’s implied stock change for 2016 and 2017. Highlights from the IEA’s October 2016 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) The OMR places the speed of rebalancing largely on three precarious prospects: global growth, an OPEC supply cut agreement and Chinese SPR purchases to help drain balances. The IEA expects the market to remain over supplied through 1H 2017, although an OPEC cut could lead t.....

SPECIAL REPORT | September 23, 2016

Texas Traffic Set to Rise - Light Sweet Skirmish at the Texas Coast to follow Judicial Upheaval

Public protests and associated legal actions, including a temporary injunction stopping construction around a water crossing in North Dakota, has put the spotlight on the 570 kb/d Dakota Access ( DAPL ) and Energy Transfer Crude Oil ( ETCO ) Bakken pipeline system. Despite the recent setback, we maintain that the DAPL / ETCO system will become operational in early 2017 and have a significant impact on light crude oil flows at the US Gulf Coast ( USGC ). In this Special Report, we explain why w.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | September 13, 2016

September 2016

Based on a 32.8 mb/d OPEC production estimate after Q2 2016, the table below shows each agency’s implied stock change for 2016 and 2017. Highlights from the IEA’s September 2016 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) Without an exception, all three agency reports have an overwhelmingly bearish tone this month. IEA highlights that demand growth is slowing at a faster pace than initially predicted (revised down by -0.1 mb/d and -0.2 mb/d for 2016 and 2017 to +1.3 mb/d and 1.2 mb/d, respectively.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | August 15, 2016

August 2016

Based on a 32.7 mb/d OPEC production estimate after Q2 2016, the table below shows each agency’s implied stock change for 2016 and 2017. Highlights from the IEA’s August 2016 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) While the IEA’s World Energy Statistics and World Energy Balances reports are to be published by the end of August, most data work appears to be done: using revised numbers from those reports, the IEA raised its 2014 non- OECD demand estimate by +0.23 mb/d. Despite the time lag, th.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | July 13, 2016

July 2016

Based on a 32.7 mb/d OPEC production estimate after Q2 2016, the table below shows each agency’s implied stock change for 2016 and 2017. Highlights from the IEA’s July 2016 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) In a discussion of market dynamics, the IEA reiterates its view of “big picture direction” regarding rebalancing, but highlights the risk posed by the existence of very high oil stocks. With product demand growth showing signs of a slowdown, (product) stocks at their extremely high leve.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | June 14, 2016

June 2016

Based on a 32.7 mb/d OPEC production estimate after Q1 2016, the table below shows each agency’s implied stock change for the year. Highlights from the IEA’s June 2016 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) IEA released its 2017 estimates for the first time today. Global oil stocks are expected to “build slightly in 1H17 before falling slightly more in 2H17”, resulting in a “very small stock draw of 0.1 mb/d” for CY 2017 based on an estimated 1.3 mb/d demand growth driven by IMF’s 3.5% GDP g.....

GLOBAL OIL RECAP AND BALANCES | May 15, 2016

May 2016

Based on a 32.7 mb/d OPEC production estimate after Q1 2016, the table below shows each agency’s implied stock change for the year. Highlights from the IEA’s May 2016 Oil Market Report ( OMR ) This month’s report has a complicated demand story. OMR mentions that 2015 demand was revised higher, but it is the 1Q16 revisions that steal the show. Year-on-year demand growth in 1Q16 now stands at +1.4 mb/d. Yet, pointing to the economic headwinds highlighted by the IMF in the form of .....