DATA INSIGHT
| June 15, 2011
Slow and steady - Nondurable manufacturing is likely tempering IP
May aggregate industrial production (IP) came in lower than Bloomberg median estimates for the fourth time this year at +0.1% m-o-m (Figure 1). Aggregate IP has gradually increased at around +0.4% m-o-m (+9.5 pp) since bottoming out in June 2009. Some of the main takeaways from today’s release are: a) Mining IP has expanded more than manufacturing IP since the end of the recession by +11.8 pp and +9.7 pp, respectively (Figure 2). Aggregate IP follows manufacturing IP closely due to its relativ.....
DATA INSIGHT
| June 10, 2011
Dealing with no deal
For crude bulls on Wednesday, the “worst meeting we’ve had in years” was the best news they’d had all day. A $2 bounce in front-month Brent on Wednesday inflated to about $3.50 in trading yesterday, before gravity set in today, weighing particularly heavily on WTI . The market’s brief bullish reaction to the news that OPEC did not reach an agreement was in line with the views we expressed in our June 7 Special Report, “The Short-Term Price Impact of OPEC Announcements.” Looking forward, w.....
SPECIAL REPORT
| June 07, 2011
The short-term price impact of OPEC announcements
Analyzing the econometric evidence This report scrutinizes an extensive body of econometric research to assess the impact of OPEC quota announcements on short-term crude oil price activity.
DATA INSIGHT
| June 07, 2011
Shale gas: U.S. dominance unchallenged?
THE IEA REPORT RELEASED YESTERDAY PRESENTS A MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE VIEW OF THE SHALE GAS BOOM THAN THE EIA HAS SUGGESTED IN RECENT MONTHS . In its report (“Are We Entering a Golden Age of Gas?”), the IEA estimates that global shale production will be limited to 15.6 bcf/d in 2015, while EIA’s balances put U.S. shale gas output at 19.7 bcf/d — over 4 bcf/d higher than IEA’s global estimate. It is also worth noting that 2011 U.S. shale gas production will.....
SPECIAL REPORT
| May 23, 2011
Through a glass darkly
The haziness of current and near-term supply-demand fundamentals has amplified volatility, which looks likely to remain elevated in the coming months WITH BENCHMARK CRUDE PRICES FLUCTUATING WILDLY OVER THE LAST MONTH , a growing share of oil market commentary has attempted to decompose the tactical reasons for day-to-day price swings. But much of the discussion has missed the forest for the trees. Though various data points have indeed triggered the movements, exceptional unc.....
DATA INSIGHT
| April 15, 2011
Home, Sweet Home: Real house prices are unlikely to rebound in the near future
Real house prices are unlikely to rebound in the near future CASE - SHILLER DATA INDICATE THAT REAL HOUSE PRICES HAVE ALREADY DECLINED BY -37% FROM THEIR PEAK IN Q3 2006 (AS OF Q4 2010). Nominal house prices have been declining monthly for seven months and falling on a yearly basis for four months, heightening fears of a potential double dip in the housing market. Real house price data indicate the possibility of additional potential weakness in the housing market befo.....
SPECIAL REPORT
| April 11, 2011
Out of Africa: It should take more than a calming North Africa and Middle East for oil markets to relax
PERHAPS NEVER BEFORE IN THE HISTORY OF MODERN ENERGY MARKETS HAVE MARKET - SHAKING EVENTS INCORPORATED HUMAN DRAMA across such a broad swath of the globe. Unrest ranging from protests to outright rebellion and civil war has erupted from the Persian Gulf to the Atlantic, with reverberations of this upheaval stretching to the halls of power in the Far East. Last month’s earthquake, tsunami, and subsequent nuclear crisis have wrought an unfathomable human and economic tol.....
SPECIAL REPORT
| March 21, 2011
Shaken to the core: Japan's crisis has shifted the landscape for nuclear development around the globe
GOVERNMENTS ACROSS THE WORLD ARE REEVALUATING THEIR NUCLEAR POLICIES following the nuclear crisis that began in Japan on March 11. While reactions have varied across the 31 countries which possess nuclear power capacity and 17 others that plan to build nuclear reactors, antinuclear sentiment appears to be threatening the fledgling nuclear renaissance. Many energy policies around the world had begun to incorporate more nuclear power in their mix to reduce emissions and increase e.....
SPECIAL REPORT
| March 15, 2011
Derangement over deficits: Spending cuts could trigger further deleveraging
THE CURRENT POLITICAL FAD OF DEFICIT REDUCTION AND SPENDING CUTS POSES SIGNIFICANT DANGER TO THE US ECONOMY . Data from the Federal Reserve Flow of Funds ( FOF ) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation ( FDIC ) suggest that a majority of the plunge in outstanding household debt resulted from write-offs by financial intuitions. Nonfinancial business leverage (% of GDP ) remains higher than its historical trend while financial businesses are continuing to save to o.....
SPECIAL REPORT
| February 28, 2011
Shoulder padding: The effect of conservation on the injection season
NATURAL GAS CONSERVATION IS NOT A NEW PHENOMENON , BUT ITS INCREASING ROLE DURING THE SHOULDER SEASONS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO RECORD INJECTIONS . Conservation used to conjure up images of former US President Carter, in his beige sweater, encouraging the American people to turn down their heaters and put on a sweater. However, beginning in 2009, conservation became more widespread, especially during the shoulder seasons as consumers began turning their units off rathe.....