EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 12, 2012
-95 bcf
EIA reported a -95 bcf withdrawal for the week ended January 6 (Bloomberg median -89 bcf, Bloomberg Whisper -99 bcf). The 22 estimates submitted to Bloomberg varied from -70 bcf to -105 bcf with a standard deviation of 10 bcf. Our pipeline scrape model showed -95 bcf. Most weather models seem to have underestimated the withdrawal this time due to weather being milder week on week (176 HDDs vs. 186 HDDs). The difference is also more than what you expect from the holiday adjustment. Total U.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| January 05, 2012
-76 bcf
EIA reported a -76 bcf withdrawal for the week ended December 30 (Bloomberg median -78 bcf, Bloomberg Whisper -74 bcf). The 23 estimates submitted to Bloomberg varied from -66 bcf to -95 bcf with a standard deviation of 9 bcf, an unusually broad range. Our pipeline scrape model showed -71 bcf, while most supply/demand models appear to have underestimated the impact of the holiday week, especially when combined with milder-than-normal temperatures during the reference week. Total US: -76 bcf .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 29, 2011
-81 bcf
EIA reported a slightly smaller-than-expected 81 bcf withdrawal for the week ended December 23 (Bloomberg median -85 bcf, Bloomberg Whisper -84 bcf). This is the second consecutive week that the EIA announcement has been bearish relative to market expectation. However, while this week’s build came in below market expectation, weather adjusted, we view this week’s storage withdrawal as in line with last week. And while making balances appear tighter compared to the same week last year, this .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 22, 2011
-100 bcf
EIA reported a smaller-than-expected -100 bcf withdrawal for the week ended December 16 (Bloomberg median -105 bcf, Bloomberg Whisper -106 bcf). This is the first time in six weeks that the EIA announcement has come in bearish compared to expectation. And simply weather-adjusted, this build would make balances appear slightly looser week on week, but much of this loosening can be explained by the nearly 1 bcf/d increase in net imports during the reference week. And much of this increase in .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 15, 2011
-102 bcf
EIA reported a larger-than-expected -102 bcf withdrawal for the week ended December 9 (Bloomberg median -92 bcf, Bloomberg Whisper -97 bcf). Price response – or rather the lack of it – to the release makes it difficult to call this a bullish number. The first triple-digit withdrawal of the season clearly marks the end of shoulder season-like pulls, but is still well below the -154 bcf draw during the reference week last year. Total US: -102 bcf ( LCMC -98 bcf; Bloomberg median -92 bcf) East.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 08, 2011
-20 bcf
EIA reported a bullish -20 bcf withdrawal for the week ended December 2. This is the fourth consecutive bullish surprise, with this week’s draw exceeding market expectations (Bloomberg median -12 bcf, Bloomberg Whisper -8 bcf). But this week, the apparent tightening in balances is slightly easier to understand for a number of reasons. Even so, the market seems to be well aware that the draw is still much lower compared to last year’s -79 bcf draw and the prior five-year average -66 bcf draw. A.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| December 01, 2011
-1 bcf
EIA reported a surprisingly bullish -1 bcf draw for the week ended November 25. This is the first draw of the season and leaves many analysts utilizing pipeline flow models scratching their heads, as most such estimates (including ours) indicated a minor change in inventories for the Consuming East, where EIA reported a -17 bcf draw, resulting in an nationwide draw for the week. Compared to last year’s -21 bcf, as well as the past five-year average of -29 bcf draw, however, this year’s refere.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 23, 2011
+9 bcf
EIA reported a surprisingly bullish +9 bcf build for the week ended November 18. This build was well below expectations (Bloomberg median +19 bcf) for the second week in a row. However, the build was still greater than last year’s -7 bcf withdrawal and the prior 5-year average withdrawal of -7 bcf for the calendar week. In addition, a revision was issued that caused stocks to change from 3,850 to 3,843 bcf for the week ended November 11. Given the revision, this week’s build makes balances ap.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 17, 2011
+19 bcf
EIA reported a surprisingly low +19 bcf build for the week ended November 11. This build was well below expectations (Bloomberg median +27 bcf), but still above the prior 5-year average build (+10 bcf) and the year-ago withdrawal (-1 bcf). After three consecutive weeks of the build exceeding expectations, this week’s bullish announcement sent the NYMEX front month contract up about 7 cents. But, while bullish relative to expectations, this build still pushed U.S. inventories to a new record o.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 10, 2011
+37 bcf
EIA reported a +37 bcf build for the week ended November 4. This build was above expectations (Bloomberg median +32 bcf, Bloomberg whisper +33 bcf), the year-ago build (+26 bcf) and the prior 5-year average (+23 bcf). This was the third consecutive week that the build exceeded market expectations. But this week the bearish build was partly due to circumstances that could prove fleeting. Even so, there is little doubt now that inventory levels will surpass last year’s record 3,837 bcf before t.....