EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 17, 2011
+19 bcf
EIA reported a surprisingly low +19 bcf build for the week ended November 11. This build was well below expectations (Bloomberg median +27 bcf), but still above the prior 5-year average build (+10 bcf) and the year-ago withdrawal (-1 bcf). After three consecutive weeks of the build exceeding expectations, this week’s bullish announcement sent the NYMEX front month contract up about 7 cents. But, while bullish relative to expectations, this build still pushed U.S. inventories to a new record o.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 10, 2011
+37 bcf
EIA reported a +37 bcf build for the week ended November 4. This build was above expectations (Bloomberg median +32 bcf, Bloomberg whisper +33 bcf), the year-ago build (+26 bcf) and the prior 5-year average (+23 bcf). This was the third consecutive week that the build exceeded market expectations. But this week the bearish build was partly due to circumstances that could prove fleeting. Even so, there is little doubt now that inventory levels will surpass last year’s record 3,837 bcf before t.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| November 03, 2011
+78 bcf
EIA reported a +78 bcf build for the week ended October 28. This build was above expectations (Bloomberg median +72 bcf, Bloomberg whisper +73 bcf), the year-ago build (+67 bcf) and the prior 5-year average (+35 bcf). The build was bearish, underscoring growth in domestic production. But even as the NYMEX front month dipped down about -6 cents immediately following the release, it recovered almost immediately, currently reaching +9 cents above yesterday’s close. So even as the chances of bre.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 27, 2011
+92 bcf
EIA reported a +92 bcf build for the week ended October 21. This build was above expectations (Bloomberg median +87 bcf, Bloomberg whisper +91 bcf), the year-ago build (+74 bcf) and the prior 5-year average (+47 bcf). After the release, NYMEX front month fell about -6 cents. However, if it were not shoulder-season weather continuing to wreak havoc on weather-based models, the build would likely not have been viewed with such bearishness. Looking forward, while next week’s build will likely .....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 20, 2011
+103 bcf
EIA reported a +103 bcf build for the week ended October 14. This build set a new high for the calendar week, reaching well above the year-ago build (+93 bcf) and the prior 5-year average (+58 bcf). However, the combination of fuel switching, nuclear outages and shoulder-season weather continues to wreak havoc on weather models, pushing expectations even higher (Bloomberg median +110 bcf, Bloomberg whisper +108 bcf). Nonetheless, this week’s build appears to indicate (weather-adjusted) balance.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 13, 2011
+112 bcf
EIA reported a +112 bcf build for the week ended October 7. This was above consensus estimates (Bloomberg median +104 bcf, Bloomberg whisper +107 bcf), the year-ago build (+90 bcf), and the prior 5-year average (+72 bcf). But even with the bearish announcement, the NYMEX front month is still up +$0.03 on the day (as the report is written). Weather adjusted, this week’s injection still implies balances in line with the prior week and looser year on year. With mild weather forecast, the next.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| October 06, 2011
+97 bcf
EIA reported a +97 bcf build for the week ended September 30. This was in line with consensus estimates (Bloomberg median +98 bcf, Bloomberg whisper +96 bcf) but still well above the prior 5-year average (+74 bcf) and the year-ago build (+84 bcf). Even with the NYMEX front month falling 23 cents over the past week to its lowest point since last October, today’s EIA announcement still managed to contribute to another 4 cent drop. However, we believe this week’s build still makes balances app.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 29, 2011
+111 bcf
EIA reported a +111 bcf build for the week ended September 23, the highest weekly build since June 2009. This was well above consensus estimates (Bloomberg median +103 bcf, Bloomberg whisper +106 bcf), the prior 5-year average (+71 bcf) and the year-ago build (+73 bcf). But the drop to $3.68 immediately following the release has already recovered somewhat, suggesting that large builds have already been priced in. Even so, this build does make balances appear looser week on week (which often h.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 22, 2011
+89 bcf
EIA reported a +89 bcf build for the week ended September 16. This was slightly below consensus estimates (Bloomberg median +92 bcf, Bloomberg whisper +93 bcf) but still well above the prior 5-year average (+72 bcf) and year-ago build (+78 bcf). In general, the first build following a holiday week usually implies a sudden tightening as demand recovers from the holiday effect. However, as mentioned in last week’s report, calculating the Labor Holiday effect gets murky due to its placement in th.....
EIA NG STORAGE REPORT
| September 15, 2011
+87 bcf
EIA reported a +87 bcf build for the week ended September 9. This was above consensus estimates (Bloomberg median +82 bcf) and the prior 5-year average (+79 bcf), but still well below the year-ago build (+96 bcf). The market interpreted this as a bearish build, erasing most of the eleven cent gain the October contract made over the past three days. But, comparisons are difficult to make this week for a number of reasons, including 1) hurricane shut-ins, 2) power outages, and 3) the holiday eff.....